What follows are links to a number of stories each of which has a slightly different take on that very question:
How Cuba is (and is not) like Egypt.
- Uncommon Sense, "'Cuba' is not Spanish for 'Egypt'."
- Dagoberto Valdes @ Diario de Cuba.
- BozBlog: "Could instability spread to Latin America?"
- Robert Molleda @ Searcing for Signs.
- The Miami Herald says, "Yes, this could resonate in Cuba."
- And the Miami Herald says, "Not so fast."
- Finally, the following quote expresses Yoani Sanchez's own incisive analysis of "why something like this doesn't happen in Cuba." You can find the entire post, "So Far from Egypt," at Translating Cuba.
"The theory of brave peoples versus cowardly peoples is simplistic. There is no gene for rebellion and one can’t predict when discontent will reach its boiling point. Since 1959 speculation on this long and narrow island has been fueled by Tarot cards, Ouija boards, rhyming quatrains, fortunetellers, babalaos and prophets. Faced with the omens of a future that never comes, millions of Cubans have summarized civic activity in one morose verb: To wait.
"They cherish the illusion of a quick fix, of going to bed one night in a country without human rights and waking up the next morning in democratic Cuba. When waiting continues to be prolonged far beyond the expected time, many choose to conjugate the verb “to emigrate” or, alternately, opt for the brief and laconic syllables of “to remain silent.” But to throw themselves into the streets? No. Because the dark asphalt of the avenues belongs to whom? Since we were children we’ve been told the answer: To the Revolutionaries, to Fidel Castro, to the Communist Party. They would have us believe that to protest in public against the layoffs of a million workers, the high cost of living, or to demand the resignation of a cabinet, are actions possible only outside our borders. They have claimed the streets, our streets.
"...even though Cairo is very far away, there are too many similarities between Cubans and the faces we saw on the March of One Million. Many of us feel that those who chant against Mubarak on the other side of the screen are calling out to us, making us ashamed of our inertia."
The grievances in Cuba are similar to those in the Maghreb region: rampant corruption, vast unemployment, repression, generalised poverty, etc; so why they do protest and we don’t? It is simply shameful.
ReplyDeleteBut I believe, since a change down there has been long overdue, the question is neither WHY nor IF, but WHEN will the shit hit the fan.
I’m a pessimistic -a cynical one might add, but as the old saying goes, “Church ain’t over ’till the fat lady sings”.